In the paragraph "the concept of scarcity", it was established that in two goods economies the ”scarcest” goods
would play the role of a currency. Indeed, the “scarcest” good is the easiest to
exchange. Thus, it can be used as a reserve of value and has the quality to be
easily exchangeable.
In the antiquity, precious metal as gold,
silver and copper were used to create money. Gold is a scarce good which can
easily be evaluated by its weight and purity (carats).
Since the abandon of the gold standard,
currencies are not a consumer product but they are an institutional right. This right is based on
the fact that a currency can make possible to buy a guaranteed monetary fund.
Then, the monetary policy of the central banks acts in order to find out the
best rate. The currency must be easily convertible in all the goods available
on the market.
If the interest rate is too low, the money
supply increase so as the scarcity of a good can become higher than the scarcity
of the currency. This good becomes difficult to obtain. Its price goes
up. This phenomenon is call inflation (*).
If the rate is too high, people don’t
want any more to buy and reduce their consumption in order to buy a money
market fund. The currency being the scarcest good, it easily can be exchange
against a good but a good can't be exchanged on will against the currency. In
other world, in our economy, it is easier to buy than to sell. Thus, a part of
unemployment is the result of the monetary organization of our society. A
country should have an interest rate as low as possible because the interest
rate increases the scarcity of a currency which makes it harder to sell and
increases unemployment up.
Remark:
(*) I have lived in Moscow during
winter 1993 and so I experiment the case hyper-inflation (1000%
inflation per annum). While people receive a payment in cash, they were keen to
spend it by fear of the lost of values. In an inflationary economy,
people had more confidence in the value of the goods than in the value of the
currency. The reason is simply that the the Russian currency: ruble where
creates in too large by the government in order to cover the budget deficits.
The ruble produced to finance the bureaucracy which could not be financed by
the tax collection. In this economy, consumer good had a scarcity higher
than the currency. It is interesting to notice that the economy tend to be
"dollarised" as American dollars look to be a safer haven to keep
values.
The scarcity of a currency increases if a
currency is convertible with the word hard currencies (dollars, Euro, Yens).
Currencies can be convertible only if they have the same "scarcity". If
a currency A has a scarcity lower with a currency B, B can be converted into
A but A can't be used to buy the currency B.
Let us take the example of the German and Spain economies. Germany has many companies which produces high-technological products. High-technology products help to increase the productivity of the companies and so to improve the output of the capital and wages. High technologies are amongst the scarcest good of our economy and have so a scarcity similar if not higher than the currency. The reason is that these technologies ensure to companies an output higher than the interest rate. The countries that had kept the technological advantage take care of not to lose it. Underdeveloped countries had to pay an high prices to buy it. China and South Korea understood to buy high technologies to develop countries was difficult. Often, they often had to barter high-technology against market shares of the domestic market by creating join venture. Spain is poor in high technology. But, in order to join the EEC, the Peseta (Spain currency) has to be convertible in others European currencies which includes the German mark. With convertibility, the Spanish companies can be able to buy German high-technology but the scarcity of the Peseta had . Technically, Spanish monetary authority increases the scarcity of the peseta by increasing the interest rate of the Peseta. And with the increase of the scarcity of the Peseta, the Spanish companies have more difficulty to sell their product since interests rate motivates saving. This can explain the relatively high rate of unemployment (24,5 %) of Spain compares to Germany.
The conclusion is that the association of
various countries at a stage different of technological development lead to a
highest unemployment in the less develop countries. Country with the highest
advanced technology have the lowest rate of unemployment as for example in 1995
Japan (3%), United States (5,5 %) and West Germany (7,9 %). Also, among
the economy capitalist with intermediary technological level, the countries
with the lowest unemployment have a currency control (in 1994, South Korea has
a 3 % unemployment rate).
In a free market economy, an increase of the
demand faster than the offer (or a decrease of the offer) of a good G have the
effect to increase the scarcity of G. The economical effect is price of G
increases of the product such as the demand is discouraged until it equilibrates
the offer.
Many people will find the G overprice and
the demand for G will decrease (even that the absolute demand will remain the
same).
Q_offerG_2
< Q_offerG_1 -> ScarcityG_1 > Scarcity_G_2 -> PriceG2 > PriceG1
->
Q_absolute_demandG2
= Q_absolute_demandG1 but Q_demandG2 = Q_offerG2 < Q_demandG1
Describe in such way, the economic mechanism
works well and the economy is regulated. The product began more
"scarce" so as enough people give up to consume it.
But unfortunately, in many case, people will
keep on consuming the product G and in order to have the cash, they will save
their cash from the consumption of other products (B) so it will increase the
abundance of (B). It is the unwilling side-effect which take place in our
monetary economy.
An historical example is the famous petrol
crisis of 1974. The increase of price of gas due to the instauration of quota
by the OPEP has the effect to reduce the offer and to increase the scarcity of
the gas.
But, people were not in position to reduce
their consumption of petrol sufficiently. Thus, they reduced their consumption in
others products and so it was the start of a world economic crisis. Petrol
price keep increasing as the demand were still too high. The offer and demand
equilibrate while OPEP decided to increase the quota. Face to this situation,
the monetary authorities decided to decrease the interest rate in order to
sustain the demand of abundant product and limit the crisis but as the scarcity of the currency were decreasing compare to the
scarcity of petrol (and other scarce products), the economies face an increase of inflation.
A soft currency could be defined in a
currency not convertible in hard currency (US$, Euro, Yen). This mean that the
soft currency could be acquired from a hard currency but not the opposite.
The ruble, the currency of former URSS is an
example of soft currency. The ruble could be compared to a kind of certificate
of hours of work of the unqualified labor. The quantity of currency created was
produced in proportion to the output of the labor. The advantage of this kind
of currency was a nearly complete absence of unemployment. As this currency
could be produced as much as the workforce availability, the unemployment was
null in the former URSS.
But the disadvantages were important.
- The first was the difficulty of trading
with the capitalist countries as the impossibility to obtain hard currency;
This point leads the former communist country to an accumulation of the technological
delays compare to capitalist countries;
- The second was the effect of fixed prices
and the non guarantee of availability of products. To avoid inflation,
communists practice policy of fixed price; the result is that certain
products which have a "scarcity" higher than the currency was regularly
missing from the market. During stay in the USSR (1991) and Russia (1993), I
find out that most products necessary to the housewife were available in store
except for some specific goods at some specific times. I can imagine the
frustration of the Russian consumer who spends a lot of energy to search for
"scarce" missing goods. Many people got goods by relation or
barter.
In term of scarcity, this currency could be
defined as a currency equal to the average of the scarcity of the consumer goods.
This means that contrary to hard currency, many goods have a higher scarcity than
the currency. So, these goods were only temporarily available. So, the common
sense was to acquire products with the highest scarcity and to store them to be
in position to exchange them latter. Thus, the consumer find it beneficial to
buy the scarce good when they are available and to store them because of
the fear to be one-day victim of shortage of goods.
A partially convertible currency is a
currency whom the exchange is controlled by the state. In general, the economy of
the country is not competitive in the world economy so it is preferable to
restrain the exchange of the currency against hard currency in order to limit
the import of foreign goods. This limitation is a problem for the local
companies which need to invest in foreign equipments. So countries which uses a
partially convertible currency (like South Korea) offer to the industrial companies
a preferential access to hard currency in order to modernize their equipment.
Fortunately, the like of guarantee for convertibility dissuades the
international investors to invest in the companies of the local economy. They
fear not to be able to convert back their profit in their original currency.
So, the investors prefer to invest in the countries who guarantee the total
convertibility of their currency than to the countries which practice an
exchange control.
In term of scarcity, a partially convertible
currency has a high scarcity compare to the products of local market but a scarcity
inferior to foreign goods and to the hard currencies. So, it is necessary to
restrict the import of foreign product and the exchange in foreign
currency. The economical advantage is to have a not too scarce currency and to
have a better monetary circulation in order to increase exchanges in the local
economy.
Consumer goods have a different degree of
scarcity. For example, Gold and energies are scarcer than bread. In the past,
people choice precious metal as currency because their scarcity was higher than
most of the products of the market. Thus, precious metal could be exchanged
easily against any kind of consumer goods. The inconvenient is when currency
are scarcer than service or products which are produced by work. So, this lead to
a high level of unemployment.
Unemployment could be defined to be a
situation of a person who cannot work as much as he wishes to. If an unemployed
person proposes his services at a lower rate, his working hours will
increase in accordance to the free market theory but the loss due to the drop
in prices will not be compensated by the augmentation of working hours (work are
usually inelastic). Thus, in accordance with the theory of elasticity of the
chapter first, one will have:
Honorary1 > Honorary2 = >
Working_duration1 < Working_duration2
with Honorary1 * Working_duration1 >
Honorary2 * Working_duration2
A person who works in a sector where
products are abundant (negative scarcity), finds out an anomalies in the
economical system by the fact that price drop more quickly than costs of
productions. In this case, one reflex is to compensate the lost by selling more
and increasing the production, which leads to a price collapse of the product.
The price of work is governed by the law of
the offer and demand. The situation of unemployment can be explain by the
fact that the offer is more extensible than the demand. The will of the
producers to increase their income implies a drop in prices higher than the
increase of the production. Thus, the income of producers drops despite the
increase of the production.
In term of scarcity, work is more abundant
than the currency so the currency can always be exchanged against the work but
the work can not always be exchange against the currency. People could so in
their life never work as much as they will. The interest of the monetary
authorities is to find a right level of scarcity for the currency (by adjusting
the level of interest rate) in order to avoid the non availability of some
goods against the currency (which leads to inflation) and to have the lower of
unemployment as possible.
To solve the problem of unemployment,
European government established a policy of quota: dairy quota, reduction of
the working time. The collective choice to reduce the production makes it
possible to maintain prices and to guarantee to the producers whose scarcity
work is insufficient, a level of income higher than this would have in a free
exchange economy.
This quota should be compared to the practice
of communist countries. In the USSR and Poland, certain goods as cars or
refrigerators were not directly accessible so a waiting list had to be
established in order to access the good.
In social democrat countries, the production
of many good is abundant so it is rationed to fit the insufficient of
consumption. For example, a milk producer has daily quota of production
which limits his market share in the European milk market. A new farmer who
wants to produce milk will not settle up because all market shares had already
been attributed. The situation is identical for drugstore, taxi driver whom the
profession is regulated by a license (governmental authorization to practice
the activity). So, each drug store have a market shares. If other actor as big
surface enter on the market, the price of the due to the reduction of the
market shares.
In this paragraph, a free market economy
will be defined by an economy completely regulates by the market laws. The
regulator does not act in order to adjust to the market situation.
Classical free market theory estimates that unemployment of the professional categories whom offer is abundant should suffer of unemployment. How can a person escape unemployment if his work offers is too abundant in the economy ? On this point, free market theory is wrong because it does not take into account the concept of scarcity. The theory supposes that the economy can be regulated at best by price fluctuation.
Let us take the example of two professions
in a situation of abundance: a shoe-maker and a meat producer. The
scarcity of their production is negative. They live in a situation of shortage
of money. They will pay attention to the least expenditure which includes the
expenditure which concern the abundant products. The shoe-maker will reduce his
meat consumption. The meat producer might repair his shoes himself. In
our civilization where people cannot get goods and services with money, a
person in lack of money is in difficulty to access to all product including
product and service more abundant than their work. This is the major drawback
of our economic and it explains that in fact the level of economical exchanges
in the economy are far inferior tthan their potential.
In a barter economy, our shoe-marker and
meat producer would be in lack only of goods whom the scarcity is superior to
their work and not with the others. An interesting social experimentation took
place in United States and in Europe: "bondinism" (economy based on
exchange bonds which represent the number of work hours). An association
proposes to exchange working hours between citizens: dental care against hours
of car repair for example. Such an association joins together 40 000 peoples in
England. The majority of the members are under employed or allocation
beneficiaries and they can't sell their competence in a world where money
becomes hard to gain. It is comprehensible that the tax administration
fights against this kind of association which helps people to escape from the
economic systems and avoid taxes. But, I would show in the chapter about multi-currency
economy that it is also the way to escape of the consequence of the strong
currency ( and scarce) for weakest economic actors. If work is exchanged
against bond which are exchange against work. Thanks to these bonds, our meat
producer will not consider that to repair his shoes by a professional will
reduce his cash reserve and so will profit from this innovative exchange vehicle. This
bond will allow him to acquire the services of the shoe-maker. In the same way,
the shoe-maker has bond which will allow him to buy the meat in desired
quantity. And, here is the miracle!
The economic exchanges between the shoe
maker and the meat producer are facilitated. These bonds can be characterized
as a soft currency without a null interest rate with a value bases on their convertibility
with hour of unqualified work. With the insufficient hypothesis of the two
actors, it does not have any effect of substitution. In a system with scarce currency, the two actors would have preferred to place their money in monetary
fund rather than to do this transaction in hard currency. The bond doesn't
allow to buy the money market fund, the transaction can exist. Thus, there is
an increase of the economic activity of the shoemaker and the meat producer.
These bonds are really a factor of creation of wealth.
This paragraph makes it possible to show
that creation of a currency which has a degree of scarcity equal to work
facilitates the exchange and the real income per capita increased. A
second currency is a genuine weapon of fight against low wages and
under-employment.
Europeans are increasingly sensitive to the
problem which are caused by the policies of governmental subsidies and quota of
production. The government puts a limit in the production or in the number of
hour of the salary men. Salary men had so a reduction of their income
especially because taxes remain the same in an absolute value so their
percentage increase and the remain of cash for consumption and saving will be
reduced. The consumer will reduce their consumption. Thus, this policy is like
a vicious circle and the government must even more reduce the production to
respond to the fall in consumption.
For example in the housing sector, due to
the taxation and reduction of working hour, people can't pay for the rent and
get a poor accommodation. During this time, house builder undergo
bankruptcy to bankruptcy.
The social-democracy countries are in a worst situation because their citizen face a tax pressure whose percentage increases as the income is high. The "repartitionist" aspirations of social democracies make that high wage earners are often victims of an aberrant real tax rate. These people which should be motivated to work more, prefer to limit their work to prevent that the increase of the tax rate, took away their earning. The quantity of scarce products produce is thus weaker than what it should be if the high wage earners were taxed less.
The scarce products ( high technology)
constituted an exported products and so they support the currency. The tax
increases on the companies which produce high-technological product as the
effect to decrease the motivation and makes these producers less competitive. The
product which are resulting from high technologies are so less available and so they have an
higher scarcity than other products. In order to guarantee the power of buying
of these products, the
monetary policy should be more restrictive and currency scarcer than high
technology. The final result of this policy is higher under-employment.
A person in situation of over employment is
a person whose the competence is lacking in the economy. Company must maintain
its production because the shortage of competences would induce a rise of
wages too strong and would make their products inaccessible.
For example, the TGV is a scarce and
exportable product. The employee of GEC-Alsthom are high level technician and
so their level of remuneration is strongly reduced by the fiscal pressure.
There is a division of 2,5 between the cost to the employer and the tax
remaining after the taxes (*). So to bear the fiscal cost, the price of
the train ticket in the TGV fare has to be very expensive and the French train ticket
is one of the more expensive of the world (* *). The price of
the products of GEC-Alsthom is fixed by the market law. A fall of the selling
price of the train engines could not be compensated by a fall of the wages and
would involve the departure of the qualified workforce towards foreign
companies and maybe the loss of the technology. So, GEC-alsthom is burdened by
the tax constraints. It can not benefit from an increase of the production due
to the price reduction of its products. Thus, it must sell his product at a
high price to face the tax cost. It will not try to increase his market shares
by decreasing its prices.
This example shows that even the companies
in situation of over employment end up with limiting their production in order
to control the prices.
(*) In the France of 1995, a salary person
which a gross monthly salary of 15000 FF /par month cost to his employer 22000
Francs per month. To have the real cost for the employer, it is necessary to
add 20,6 % of VAT and 4 % of professional tax so we have a mostly cost of 22000
* (1 + 20,6 % + 4 %) = 274000 Francs. This employee will bring an add value to
the company if his work generates a sold production of at least 27400 Francs
monthly. This employee will have to pay many social tax, income tax and
so he will receive an after tax salary of 10500 Francs. Thus, there is a
division by 2,6 times between his cost to the company and the cash he is
receiving.
(* *) Korean people who has in 1995 an
average gross salary 20 % lower than the French wages pays a train ticket to
travel 300 km only 60 francs. The same distance with a standard French train
costs 200 francs and is even more expensive if the trip should be done through
the TGV.
Copyright 2001
Author: Hector Archytas